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Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?·closes in 25mo

Will Renan Santos qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES means Renan Santos

24h volume
0
5,409 lifetime
Open interest
3,644
Spread
2¢
50 × 103 at the touch
24h range
–
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 99¢
Recent buying3% YES · 97% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2246¢
  • ask1,27345¢
  • ask5744¢
  • ask29537¢
  • ask335¢
  • ask5005¢
  • ask5544¢
  • ask1033¢
spread2¢mid 2¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Renan Santos is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBRPRESADVANCE-26OCT04-RSAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 3% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago2¢16bought no
13d ago2¢0.25bought no
16d ago3¢5.13bought no
17d ago3¢0.75bought no
17d ago4¢1bought yes
1mo ago7¢500bought no
1mo ago8¢5bought yes
1mo ago9¢48bought yes
1mo ago7¢500bought no
1mo ago7¢332bought no
1mo ago6¢500bought no
1mo ago7¢500bought no
1mo ago13¢22bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.