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will Bitcoin hit price target by date·closes in 12d

Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Oct 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

YES means By Oct 2, 2026

24h volume
2,452
21.2k lifetime
Open interest
6,516
+6,575 over 90d
Spread
3¢
114 × 100 at the touch
24h range
34¢ – 57¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
49%+13

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
51%

costs 51¢

YES bid / ask
49¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 51¢
24h low 34¢24h high 57¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volAug 28Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1285¢
  • ask2079¢
  • ask19075¢
  • ask5174¢
  • ask1157¢
  • ask3,00054¢
  • ask7653¢
  • ask10052¢
spread3¢mid 51¢
  • bid11449¢
  • bid68448¢
  • bid3,00047¢
  • bid10044¢
  • bid9034¢
  • bid8.9725¢
  • bid10019¢
  • bid10016¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Oct 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 24 · 10:45 PM UTC
closes
Oct 3 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 15, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26OCT02
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12m ago49¢66bought no
2h ago45¢0.01bought no
2h ago50¢5.78bought yes
2h ago51¢28bought yes
2h ago52¢468bought yes
2h ago51¢16bought yes
2h ago47¢3.72bought no
2h ago52¢3.72bought yes
3h ago52¢0.01bought yes
3h ago45¢14bought no
4h ago49¢1.87bought yes
4h ago44¢12bought no
4h ago50¢100bought no
4h ago51¢24bought no
4h ago52¢9.3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.