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KXBTCPRICE·closed

Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Sep 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

YES means By Sep 18, 2026

24h volume
0
9,079 lifetime
Open interest
6,249
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

This market is closed. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Sep 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 24 · 10:45 PM UTC
closes
Sep 19 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 15, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26SEP18
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago15¢0.04bought yes
2d ago15¢0.03bought yes
2d ago15¢0.03bought yes
2d ago15¢0.03bought yes
2d ago15¢0.02bought yes
2d ago15¢0.02bought yes
2d ago15¢0.04bought yes
2d ago15¢0.03bought yes
2d ago15¢0.05bought yes
2d ago15¢0.05bought yes
2d ago15¢0.03bought yes
2d ago15¢0.01bought yes
2d ago15¢0.04bought yes
2d ago15¢0.05bought yes
2d ago15¢0.04bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.