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CPI·closes in 2mo

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?

YES means Above 0.2%

24h volume
0
5,432 lifetime
Open interest
1,805
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
51 × 22 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
68%

A YES contract costs 71¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
32%

costs 30¢

YES bid / ask
70¢ / 71¢
NO bid / ask
29¢ / 30¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
65¢70¢75¢80¢volSep 20, 1:43 AMSep 21, 1:35 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4988¢
  • ask0.7684¢
  • ask13678¢
  • ask5076¢
  • ask5075¢
  • ask37574¢
  • ask10073¢
  • ask2271¢
spread1¢mid 71¢
  • bid5170¢
  • bid5068¢
  • bid2966¢
  • bid37565¢
  • bid153¢
  • bid20052¢
  • bid21751¢
  • bid94050¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (November 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 20 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 10 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 10 · 2:56 PM UTC
floor
0.2
ticker
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.2
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago68¢21bought yes
2d ago72¢200bought yes
2d ago71¢29bought yes
2d ago69¢1bought yes
2d ago67¢121bought yes
2d ago67¢2bought yes
2d ago67¢60bought yes
2d ago67¢1bought yes
2d ago67¢196bought yes
2d ago71¢50bought no
2d ago71¢200bought no
2d ago71¢20bought no
2d ago74¢2bought no
2d ago73¢40bought no
2d ago74¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.