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CPI·closes in 23d

Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?

YES means Above -0.4%

24h volume
513
3,254 lifetime
Open interest
2,349
Spread
1¢
1,393 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 1¢

YES bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 14 · 12:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 14 · 1:56 PM UTC
floor
-0.4
ticker
KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.4
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago99¢513bought no
2d ago99¢94bought yes
2d ago99¢94bought no
5d ago98¢8bought no
5d ago98¢4bought no
5d ago98¢21bought no
6d ago99¢1,000bought yes
7d ago99¢42bought yes
7d ago99¢200bought yes
7d ago96¢100bought no
7d ago95¢14bought no
7d ago96¢21bought no
7d ago98¢100bought yes
7d ago98¢100bought yes
7d ago98¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.