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CPI·closes in 23d

Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?

YES means Above -0.4%

24h volume
513
3,254 lifetime
Open interest
2,349
+2,349 over 90d
Spread
1¢
1,393 × 0 at the touch
24h range
67¢ – 99¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 1¢

YES bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
24h low 67¢24h high 99¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volJul 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
    spread–mid –
    • bid1,39399¢
    • bid1,48898¢
    • bid0.0597¢
    • bid10196¢
    • bid28695¢
    • bid1.0992¢
    • bid2991¢
    • bid74290¢
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 14 · 12:25 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Oct 14 · 1:56 PM UTC
    floor
    -0.4
    ticker
    KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.4
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    8h ago99¢513bought no
    2d ago99¢94bought yes
    2d ago99¢94bought no
    5d ago98¢8bought no
    5d ago98¢4bought no
    5d ago98¢21bought no
    6d ago99¢1,000bought yes
    7d ago99¢42bought yes
    7d ago99¢200bought yes
    7d ago96¢100bought no
    7d ago95¢14bought no
    7d ago96¢21bought no
    7d ago98¢100bought yes
    7d ago98¢100bought yes
    7d ago98¢100bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.