Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a 2028 presidential run?·closes in 26mo

Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

YES means Rahm Emanuel

24h volume
0
2,648 lifetime
Open interest
2,257
Spread
49¢
107 × 5 at the touch
24h range
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
25%

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
75%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/ 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 97¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask14098¢
  • ask4095¢
  • ask8694¢
  • ask0.7975¢
  • ask1055¢
  • ask553¢
  • ask552¢
spread49¢mid 28¢
  • bid107
  • bid139
  • bid30
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Rahm Emanuel is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

opened
May 21 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-REMA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 208¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 21 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago24¢10bought yes
2d ago25¢200bought yes
2d ago22¢10bought yes
6d ago26¢10bought no
6d ago25¢33bought no
6d ago26¢11bought yes
13d ago26¢200bought yes
14d ago25¢30bought yes
14d ago19¢18bought no
15d ago27¢18bought yes
17d ago26¢100bought yes
18d ago23¢200bought no
18d ago25¢100bought yes
18d ago22¢200bought yes
18d ago18¢26bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.