Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
YES means Rahm Emanuel
- 24h volume
- 0
- 2,648 lifetime
- Open interest
- 2,257
- Spread
- 51¢
- 107 × 5 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 21 recent trades
A YES contract costs 54¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 97¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Rahm Emanuel is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
- opened
- May 21 · 9:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Nov 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-REMA
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 208¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 21 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 24¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 25¢ | 200 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 22¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 6d ago | 26¢ | 10 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 25¢ | 33 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 26¢ | 11 | bought yes |
| 13d ago | 26¢ | 200 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 25¢ | 30 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 19¢ | 18 | bought no |
| 15d ago | 27¢ | 18 | bought yes |
| 17d ago | 26¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 18d ago | 23¢ | 200 | bought no |
| 18d ago | 25¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 18d ago | 22¢ | 200 | bought yes |
| 18d ago | 18¢ | 26 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.