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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.50%?

YES means Above 4.50%

24h volume
455
2,760 lifetime
Open interest
1,652
Spread
6¢
19 × 91 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
50%+19

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
50%

costs 56¢

YES bid / ask
44¢ / 50¢
NO bid / ask
50¢ / 56¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2358¢
  • ask2156¢
  • ask2055¢
  • ask1954¢
  • ask5.2253¢
  • ask1752¢
  • ask27551¢
  • ask9150¢
spread6¢mid 47¢
  • bid1944¢
  • bid2043¢
  • bid10041¢
  • bid10040¢
  • bid4827¢
  • bid5026¢
  • bid5025¢
  • bid5024¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4m ago48¢16bought yes
4m ago49¢4.78bought yes
4m ago50¢8.97bought yes
26m ago48¢10bought yes
2h ago47¢1.41bought yes
4h ago44¢19bought no
4h ago46¢0.12bought no
4h ago43¢4.78bought no
5h ago48¢2bought yes
7h ago49¢22bought yes
7h ago49¢27bought yes
7h ago49¢0.19bought yes
8h ago48¢2.01bought yes
8h ago49¢2.97bought yes
8h ago49¢19bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.