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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.50%?

YES means Above 4.50%

24h volume
623
3,048 lifetime
Open interest
1,662
+1,163 over 7d
Spread
17¢
24 × 24 at the touch
24h range
38¢ – 50¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%−12

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 70¢
24h low 38¢24h high 50¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2055¢
  • ask1954¢
  • ask5.2253¢
  • ask1752¢
  • ask27551¢
  • ask10050¢
  • ask2048¢
  • ask2447¢
spread17¢mid 39¢
  • bid2430¢
  • bid10029¢
  • bid10028¢
  • bid4727¢
  • bid5026¢
  • bid5025¢
  • bid5024¢
  • bid5023¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
34m ago43¢5bought no
34m ago38¢0.16bought no
41m ago49¢20bought yes
41m ago48¢5bought yes
41m ago50¢24bought yes
48m ago47¢14bought yes
48m ago46¢7bought yes
1h ago41¢35bought no
1h ago42¢19bought no
1h ago41¢100bought no
1h ago42¢19bought no
1h ago43¢20bought no
1h ago44¢19bought no
1h ago48¢16bought yes
1h ago49¢4.78bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.