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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.50%?

YES means Above 4.50%

24h volume
475
3,082 lifetime
Open interest
1,672
Spread
5¢
40 × 11 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
47%+1

A YES contract costs 49¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
53%

costs 56¢

YES bid / ask
44¢ / 49¢
NO bid / ask
51¢ / 56¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago47¢19bought yes
2h ago47¢10bought yes
2h ago42¢2.05bought no
2h ago47¢2.05bought yes
3h ago43¢5bought no
3h ago38¢0.16bought no
3h ago49¢20bought yes
3h ago48¢5bought yes
3h ago50¢24bought yes
3h ago47¢14bought yes
3h ago46¢7bought yes
4h ago41¢35bought no
4h ago42¢19bought no
4h ago41¢100bought no
4h ago42¢19bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.