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Fed governor nominee·closes in 3mo

Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?

YES means Stephen Miran

24h volume
0
77.8k lifetime
Open interest
47.6k
Spread
5¢
500 × 1.33 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 95¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5547¢
  • ask1,24546¢
  • ask15045¢
  • ask4044¢
  • ask50014¢
  • ask1,00012¢
  • ask411¢
  • ask1.3310¢
spread5¢mid 7¢
  • bid5005¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid1,3863¢
  • bid1001¢
  • bid350¢
  • bid500¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Stephen Miran is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.

The nomination must be sent by the President and received by the United States Senate.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 5 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDGOVNOM-27-SMIR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago7¢2,000bought no
3d ago7¢500bought no
9d ago7¢7.8bought no
9d ago7¢3bought no
9d ago7¢1bought no
9d ago16¢12bought yes
12d ago12¢22bought yes
12d ago13¢67bought yes
12d ago14¢476bought yes
29d ago6¢0.7bought no
1mo ago12¢0.7bought yes
1mo ago12¢7.84bought yes
1mo ago10¢7.4bought yes
1mo ago10¢1bought yes
1mo ago10¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.