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Next Fed rate hike·closes in 9mo

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?

YES means Before July 2027

24h volume
100
4,392 lifetime
Open interest
2,067
+2,057 over 30d
Spread
1¢
2,500 × 600 at the touch
24h range
92¢ – 92¢
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
92%

A YES contract costs 92¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
8%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 92¢
NO bid / ask
8¢ / 9¢
24h low 92¢24h high 92¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
75¢80¢85¢90¢95¢volSep 16Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25799¢
  • ask40397¢
  • ask20094¢
  • ask60092¢
spread1¢mid 92¢
  • bid2,50091¢
  • bid4,00090¢
  • bid2,00089¢
  • bid1,00086¢
  • bid2,50084¢
  • bid50083¢
  • bid1,31355¢
  • bid3,60254¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 16 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDHIKE-2-27JUN30
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23h ago92¢100bought yes
1d ago92¢80bought yes
1d ago91¢15bought yes
1d ago91¢4.8bought yes
1d ago91¢4.16bought no
1d ago91¢0.64bought no
3d ago90¢80bought yes
3d ago90¢100bought yes
3d ago90¢138bought yes
3d ago89¢1,000bought no
3d ago89¢80bought no
3d ago89¢200bought no
3d ago89¢250bought no
3d ago89¢200bought no
3d ago90¢38bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.