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INXDIRY·closes in 16mo

Will the S&P 500 be above 8200 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST?

YES means 8,200 or above

24h volume
0
1,695 lifetime
Open interest
1,350
+147 over 90d
Spread
2¢
11 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
40 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 53¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 53¢
NO bid / ask
47¢ / 49¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢volAug 18Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.0k99¢
  • ask5498¢
  • ask1.7678¢
  • ask12275¢
  • ask30674¢
  • ask7455¢
  • ask5054¢
  • ask1053¢
spread2¢mid 52¢
  • bid1151¢
  • bid10050¢
  • bid2449¢
  • bid2348¢
  • bid12947¢
  • bid25626¢
  • bid0.0925¢
  • bid552¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST is above 8200, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
8200.0001
ticker
KXINXDIRY-27DEC31H1600-T8200
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 40 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago51¢9.13bought no
1d ago53¢9.13bought yes
3d ago51¢9.13bought no
3d ago53¢9.13bought yes
3d ago49¢22bought no
3d ago48¢13bought no
4d ago50¢8.81bought no
5d ago51¢0.09bought no
6d ago55¢1.76bought yes
6d ago51¢9.39bought no
6d ago55¢8.81bought yes
7d ago54¢7.17bought yes
7d ago54¢7.17bought yes
8d ago52¢50bought yes
8d ago51¢0.09bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.