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Humanity's Last Exam·closes in 3mo

Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

YES means At least 60%

24h volume
180
11.0k lifetime
Open interest
4,466
+4,414 over 90d
Spread
4¢
503 × 43 at the touch
24h range
42¢ – 72¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
44%−14

A YES contract costs 46¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
56%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 46¢
NO bid / ask
54¢ / 58¢
24h low 42¢24h high 72¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,29679¢
  • ask2678¢
  • ask10075¢
  • ask5174¢
  • ask41260¢
  • ask15055¢
  • ask50050¢
  • ask4346¢
spread4¢mid 44¢
  • bid50342¢
  • bid15032¢
  • bid4521¢
  • bid58418¢
  • bid1,03017¢
  • bid80012¢
  • bid2,0803¢
  • bid2,9002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
60
ticker
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T60
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago44¢31bought no
11h ago43¢30bought no
22h ago47¢14bought no
22h ago47¢97bought no
22h ago49¢3bought no
22h ago48¢5bought no
6d ago58¢62bought yes
6d ago56¢46bought yes
6d ago49¢13bought yes
6d ago50¢40bought yes
6d ago57¢12bought yes
6d ago48¢4.59bought yes
6d ago45¢3.41bought yes
6d ago45¢3bought yes
6d ago44¢7.28bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.