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Humanity's Last Exam·closes in 3mo

Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

YES means At least 70%

24h volume
8.3
4,670 lifetime
Open interest
2,214
Spread
3¢
192 × 48 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 83¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4095¢
  • ask14487¢
  • ask3570¢
  • ask72457¢
  • ask92456¢
  • ask5355¢
  • ask50021¢
  • ask4820¢
spread3¢mid 19¢
  • bid19217¢
  • bid50013¢
  • bid1506¢
  • bid4425¢
  • bid9064¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
70
ticker
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T70
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago17¢8.3bought no
7d ago17¢2bought no
7d ago17¢6bought no
7d ago17¢5bought no
7d ago21¢5bought no
7d ago60¢114bought yes
7d ago59¢10bought yes
7d ago58¢40bought yes
8d ago17¢40bought no
8d ago16¢10bought no
10d ago20¢473bought yes
11d ago22¢39bought yes
12d ago29¢1.1bought yes
12d ago28¢40bought yes
12d ago65¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.