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Humanity's Last Exam·closes in 3mo

Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

YES means At least 80%

24h volume
0
1,537 lifetime
Open interest
920
Spread
5¢
45 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 97¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3184¢
  • ask14158¢
  • ask49649¢
  • ask72848¢
  • ask342¢
  • ask4841¢
  • ask5009¢
  • ask58¢
spread5¢mid 5¢
  • bid453¢
  • bid1942¢
  • bid5001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
80
ticker
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T80
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago2¢6bought no
9d ago3¢5bought no
9d ago8¢0.02bought yes
9d ago8¢0.11bought yes
9d ago8¢0.62bought yes
9d ago8¢10bought yes
12d ago25¢3.31bought yes
12d ago49¢3.31bought yes
23d ago12¢392bought yes
23d ago12¢75bought yes
23d ago10¢175bought yes
23d ago10¢100bought yes
23d ago13¢82bought yes
1mo ago11¢5bought yes
2mo ago6¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.