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MLS Cup champion·closes in 2mo

Will Miami win the MLS Cup?

YES means Miami

Vancouver and Nashville are 23¢ each, but Miami has traded more than twice the contracts of any other club. They visit Columbus on Sep 27 at 43–54¢.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
3,151
425.6k lifetime
Open interest
164.6k
+22.2k over 30d
Spread
1¢
11 × 2,589 at the touch
24h range
16¢ – 18¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%−1

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 83¢
24h low 16¢24h high 18¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volOct 6Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2627¢
  • ask2626¢
  • ask20525¢
  • ask2122¢
  • ask17021¢
  • ask27420¢
  • ask98019¢
  • ask2,58918¢
spread1¢mid 18¢
  • bid1117¢
  • bid4516¢
  • bid10815¢
  • bid33414¢
  • bid30613¢
  • bid2,78312¢
  • bid1,00011¢
  • bid248¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Miami is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 6 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 25 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMLSCUP-26-MIA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 121¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7m ago18¢50bought yes
2h ago17¢6.94bought no
2h ago17¢1.18bought no
2h ago16¢12bought no
4h ago18¢53bought yes
4h ago18¢220bought yes
7h ago17¢6.94bought no
7h ago16¢14bought no
9h ago17¢8bought yes
21h ago18¢250bought yes
22h ago18¢2,533bought yes
22h ago18¢28bought yes
22h ago18¢0.48bought yes
22h ago17¢19bought yes
1d ago18¢2.24bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.