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KXOSCARPIC·closes in 16mo

Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars?

YES means The Black Ball

24h volume
89.6k
461.3k lifetime
Open interest
347.9k
Spread
1¢
30 × 1.23 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%+15

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 70¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7038¢
  • ask6437¢
  • ask10.0k36¢
  • ask1035¢
  • ask6934¢
  • ask10.0k33¢
  • ask33132¢
  • ask1.2331¢
spread1¢mid 31¢
  • bid3030¢
  • bid4729¢
  • bid7828¢
  • bid21127¢
  • bid22026¢
  • bid27025¢
  • bid9,11624¢
  • bid4023¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Black Ball has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
May 27 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARPIC-27-BLA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 136¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
43m ago31¢1.23bought yes
52m ago31¢0.99bought yes
52m ago32¢69bought yes
52m ago31¢9bought yes
52m ago31¢40bought yes
52m ago32¢21bought yes
52m ago31¢1.14bought yes
52m ago32¢57bought yes
52m ago31¢22bought yes
52m ago32¢12bought yes
52m ago31¢29bought yes
52m ago31¢1bought yes
52m ago31¢7.79bought yes
52m ago31¢23bought yes
52m ago32¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.