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Oscar for Best Picture·closes in 16mo

Will The Social Reckoning win Best Picture at the Oscars?

YES means The Social Reckoning

24h volume
0
165.7k lifetime
Open interest
141.9k
Spread
1¢
0 × 45.3k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Social Reckoning has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARPIC-27-SOC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 136¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago1¢166bought yes
3d ago1¢94bought yes
4d ago1¢48bought yes
7d ago1¢4bought yes
7d ago1¢4bought yes
8d ago1¢1bought yes
8d ago2¢361bought yes
8d ago1¢3.26bought yes
8d ago1¢300bought yes
8d ago1¢1.16bought yes
8d ago1¢0.16bought yes
8d ago1¢2.84bought yes
9d ago2¢13.3kbought yes
9d ago2¢4,478bought yes
9d ago1¢2,000bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.