Oscar for Best Picture·closes in 16mo

Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars?

YES means Dune: Part Three

24h volume: 3,894; 476.7k lifetime
Open interest: 325.5k; +49.5k over 7d
Spread: 1¢; 3,822 × 21.8k at the touch
24h range: 10¢ – 13¢

Chance of YES

10%−1

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask

10¢ / 11¢

NO bid / ask

89¢ / 90¢

24h low 10¢24h high 13¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask16518¢
ask1,72517¢
ask5,20216¢
ask35015¢
ask3,19114¢
ask3,03613¢
ask7,81312¢
ask21.8k11¢

spread1¢mid 11¢

bid3,82210¢
bid6,4509¢
bid5,1158¢
bid16.9k7¢
bid1,0976¢
bid1,0205¢
bid1,3614¢
bid2,4173¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Dune: Part Three has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

opened: Mar 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXOSCARPIC-27-DUN

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 136¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.