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Oscar for Best Picture·closes in 16mo

Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars?

YES means The Black Ball

24h volume
89.8k
461.4k lifetime
Open interest
347.9k
+120.4k over 7d
Spread
1¢
70 × 28 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 32¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
28%+12

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
72%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 72¢
24h low 15¢24h high 32¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.0k36¢
  • ask5135¢
  • ask4534¢
  • ask10.0k33¢
  • ask15532¢
  • ask82331¢
  • ask40230¢
  • ask2829¢
spread1¢mid 29¢
  • bid7028¢
  • bid18727¢
  • bid27326¢
  • bid27025¢
  • bid9,11424¢
  • bid1023¢
  • bid1322¢
  • bid1021¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Black Ball has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
May 27 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARPIC-27-BLA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 134¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4m ago28¢0.51bought no
25m ago29¢2.71bought no
25m ago30¢8.57bought no
25m ago29¢40bought no
25m ago29¢4.44bought no
25m ago30¢4.56bought no
25m ago30¢12bought no
25m ago30¢3bought no
25m ago29¢8.17bought no
25m ago29¢3bought no
25m ago29¢25bought no
25m ago29¢7.56bought no
25m ago30¢10bought no
25m ago30¢5bought no
31m ago31¢1.23bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.