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Oscar for Best Picture·closes in 16mo

Will Elsinore win Best Picture at the Oscars?

YES means Elsinore

24h volume
0
152.5k lifetime
Open interest
139.1k
+0 over 7d
Spread
1¢
0 × 114.2k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask46820¢
  • ask10.0k19¢
  • ask4711¢
  • ask209¢
  • ask58¢
  • ask10.0k5¢
  • ask4,6852¢
  • ask114.2k1¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Elsinore has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The 99thth Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 20 · 3:30 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXOSCARPIC-27-ELS
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 136¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    8d ago1¢57bought no
    8d ago1¢4,000bought no
    8d ago1¢10bought no
    8d ago1¢5,000bought no
    9d ago1¢1bought no
    10d ago2¢7.44bought yes
    10d ago2¢2,340bought yes
    11d ago2¢50bought yes
    11d ago1¢1.4bought no
    12d ago2¢1.37bought yes
    12d ago1¢468bought no
    13d ago3¢2.4bought yes
    16d ago1¢842bought no
    16d ago1¢725bought no
    16d ago1¢2,176bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.