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Oscar for Best Picture·closes in 16mo

Will The Social Reckoning win Best Picture at the Oscars?

YES means The Social Reckoning

24h volume
0
165.7k lifetime
Open interest
141.9k
+47.5k over 30d
Spread
1¢
0 × 45.4k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask50410¢
  • ask709¢
  • ask6508¢
  • ask1,1046¢
  • ask9,9035¢
  • ask5,0163¢
  • ask25.6k2¢
  • ask45.4k1¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If The Social Reckoning has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Mar 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXOSCARPIC-27-SOC
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 134¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    2d ago1¢166bought yes
    3d ago1¢94bought yes
    4d ago1¢48bought yes
    7d ago1¢4bought yes
    7d ago1¢4bought yes
    8d ago1¢1bought yes
    8d ago2¢361bought yes
    8d ago1¢3.26bought yes
    8d ago1¢300bought yes
    8d ago1¢1.16bought yes
    8d ago1¢0.16bought yes
    8d ago1¢2.84bought yes
    9d ago2¢13.3kbought yes
    9d ago2¢4,478bought yes
    9d ago1¢2,000bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.