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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Chris Van Hollen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Chris Van Hollen

24h volume
955
294.5k lifetime
Open interest
294.5k
+42.1k over 7d
Spread
1¢
0 × 2.92M at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12220¢
  • ask21.0k19¢
  • ask3010¢
  • ask5.489¢
  • ask100.0k5¢
  • ask3903¢
  • ask135.9k2¢
  • ask2.92M1¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Chris Van Hollen wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 25 · 4:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESNOMD-28-CHOL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.