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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Gavin Newsom

24h volume
9,341
10.24M lifetime
Open interest
4.56M
Spread
1¢
52.3k × 46.7k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%−1

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,73321¢
  • ask127.7k20¢
  • ask71.9k19¢
  • ask41.3k18¢
  • ask59.6k17¢
  • ask21.1k16¢
  • ask111.0k15¢
  • ask46.7k14¢
spread1¢mid 14¢
  • bid52.3k13¢
  • bid88.8k12¢
  • bid31.3k11¢
  • bid70.5k10¢
  • bid22810¢
  • bid16010¢
  • bid2010¢
  • bid22.2k9¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-GN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
29s ago13¢17bought no
6m ago13¢7bought no
8m ago14¢674bought yes
20m ago14¢74bought yes
23m ago14¢67bought yes
30m ago13¢40bought no
31m ago14¢20bought yes
47m ago13¢6.73bought no
50m ago14¢135bought yes
60m ago14¢6.73bought yes
1h ago13¢182bought no
1h ago14¢62bought yes
1h ago13¢141bought no
1h ago14¢135bought yes
2h ago14¢67bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.