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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Ruben Gallego be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Ruben Gallego

24h volume
2,213
3.36M lifetime
Open interest
2.61M
+1,291 over 7d
Spread
0¢
824 × 248.8k at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 0¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%−0

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 0¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11¢
  • ask20.0k1¢
  • ask46.0k1¢
  • ask0.11¢
  • ask58.8k1¢
  • ask42.4k1¢
  • ask170.8k1¢
  • ask248.8k1¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid8240¢
  • bid26.2k0¢
  • bid400.3k0¢
  • bid10.03M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ruben Gallego wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22, 2025 · 2:40 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-RGAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago0¢312bought no
11h ago0¢179bought no
11h ago0¢1,381bought no
21h ago0¢341bought no
1d ago1¢731bought yes
2d ago1¢187bought yes
2d ago0¢31.2kbought no
3d ago0¢4bought no
5d ago1¢373bought yes
5d ago0¢1,283bought no
6d ago0¢3,750bought no
7d ago0¢3,456bought no
8d ago0¢2,339bought no
8d ago0¢935bought no
10d ago0¢4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.