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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Stephen A. Smith be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Stephen A. Smith

24h volume
5,556
6.48M lifetime
Open interest
3.87M
Spread
0¢
15.0k × 40.6k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%−0

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying24% YES · 76% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11¢
  • ask1.03M1¢
  • ask24.1k1¢
  • ask7,2941¢
  • ask43.7k1¢
  • ask279.2k1¢
  • ask52.4k1¢
  • ask40.6k0¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid15.0k0¢
  • bid1.00M0¢
  • bid2.55M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Stephen A. Smith wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 30, 2025 · 1:15 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-SAS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 24% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17m ago0¢46bought no
10h ago0¢30bought no
10h ago0¢14bought no
10h ago0¢4,986bought no
12h ago0¢170bought no
22h ago0¢310bought no
2d ago0¢229bought yes
2d ago0¢34bought yes
2d ago0¢1,966bought yes
2d ago0¢2,534bought yes
2d ago0¢611bought yes
3d ago0¢233bought no
3d ago0¢4bought no
4d ago0¢208bought no
5d ago0¢93bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.