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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Erika Kirk

24h volume
0
993.5k lifetime
Open interest
866.1k
+3,186 over 7d
Spread
0¢
0 × 66.2k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 16, 4:00 AMSep 18, 4:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask35.1k1¢
  • ask50.1k1¢
  • ask86.2k1¢
  • ask88.5k1¢
  • ask6,3071¢
  • ask1020¢
  • ask2,0000¢
  • ask66.2k0¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Erika Kirk wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESNOMR-28-EKIR
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    3d ago0¢766bought yes
    3d ago0¢1,200bought yes
    3d ago0¢1,000bought yes
    4d ago0¢220bought yes
    7d ago0¢1,832bought yes
    8d ago0¢1,000bought yes
    9d ago0¢5,473bought yes
    9d ago0¢1,000bought yes
    9d ago0¢1,351bought yes
    11d ago0¢897bought yes
    11d ago0¢14bought no
    12d ago0¢186bought no
    19d ago0¢6,015bought yes
    19d ago0¢999bought yes
    19d ago0¢250bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.