galdor.xyz
Admin
Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Elise Stefanik be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Elise Stefanik

24h volume
0
705.1k lifetime
Open interest
547.7k
+0 over 7d
Spread
0¢
2.12M × 10.6k at the touch
24h range
–
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying9% YES · 91% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 16, 4:00 AMSep 18, 4:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask79.0k1¢
  • ask120.3k1¢
  • ask2501¢
  • ask1671¢
  • ask1601¢
  • ask30.0k0¢
  • ask155.4k0¢
  • ask10.6k0¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid2.12M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elise Stefanik wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-ES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 9% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago0¢3bought no
8d ago0¢9,123bought no
8d ago0¢2bought no
20d ago0¢1bought no
20d ago0¢47bought no
20d ago0¢108bought no
28d ago0¢10bought no
28d ago0¢453bought no
28d ago0¢156bought yes
1mo ago0¢309bought yes
1mo ago0¢295bought yes
1mo ago0¢15bought yes
2mo ago0¢150bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.