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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Josh Hawley

24h volume
0
1.53M lifetime
Open interest
1.29M
+116.7k over 30d
Spread
0¢
153 × 2,099 at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying11% YES · 89% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6932¢
  • ask100.0k2¢
  • ask2,5091¢
  • ask231¢
  • ask109.2k1¢
  • ask87.2k1¢
  • ask3,1821¢
  • ask2,0991¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid1531¢
  • bid12.6k0¢
  • bid100.5k0¢
  • bid500.0k0¢
  • bid5.03M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Josh Hawley wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-JH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 11% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago0¢3bought no
4d ago0¢1,000bought no
4d ago0¢420bought no
4d ago0¢12.6kbought no
4d ago1¢500bought no
4d ago1¢500bought no
4d ago1¢6,031bought no
4d ago1¢100bought no
4d ago1¢0.96bought no
4d ago1¢50.0kbought no
4d ago1¢2.47bought no
4d ago1¢25.0kbought no
4d ago1¢1,693bought no
4d ago1¢3,400bought no
4d ago1¢7,481bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.