galdor.xyz
Admin
Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will John Thune be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means John Thune

24h volume
0
454.1k lifetime
Open interest
395.2k
+53.5k over 90d
Spread
0¢
2.00M × 212.7k at the touch
24h range
–
40 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 24Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.7k1¢
  • ask10.5k1¢
  • ask4821¢
  • ask191¢
  • ask0.21¢
  • ask9.210¢
  • ask341.4k0¢
  • ask212.7k0¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid2.00M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Thune wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 11, 2024 · 8:30 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-JT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 40 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago0¢93bought no
3d ago0¢5bought no
5d ago0¢916bought yes
8d ago0¢2bought no
8d ago0¢300bought no
10d ago0¢8bought no
14d ago0¢100bought yes
14d ago0¢2,000bought yes
14d ago0¢1,000bought yes
14d ago0¢1,000bought yes
14d ago0¢1,000bought yes
14d ago0¢1,000bought yes
14d ago0¢1bought yes
14d ago0¢2,000bought yes
14d ago0¢1,000bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.