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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Pete Hegseth

24h volume
0
1.28M lifetime
Open interest
1.10M
−351 over 7d
Spread
0¢
11.1k × 2,259 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 99¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask31.2k2¢
  • ask22.9k2¢
  • ask50.2k1¢
  • ask30.0k1¢
  • ask6001¢
  • ask8.661¢
  • ask3,0001¢
  • ask2,2591¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid11.1k1¢
  • bid10.0k1¢
  • bid14.5k0¢
  • bid10.6k0¢
  • bid15.3k0¢
  • bid636.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pete Hegseth wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 23 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-PHEG
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago1¢0.83bought no
2d ago1¢27bought no
3d ago1¢102bought yes
4d ago1¢350bought no
6d ago1¢11bought yes
6d ago1¢12bought yes
6d ago1¢430bought yes
6d ago1¢18bought yes
6d ago1¢29bought yes
6d ago1¢0.32bought yes
6d ago1¢11bought yes
6d ago1¢634bought yes
9d ago1¢1,216bought no
9d ago1¢632bought no
9d ago1¢97bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.