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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Rand Paul be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Rand Paul

24h volume
100
1.31M lifetime
Open interest
1.07M
+138.4k over 90d
Spread
0¢
12.7k × 29.8k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%+0

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8,8191¢
  • ask32.1k1¢
  • ask33.5k1¢
  • ask30.0k1¢
  • ask23.8k1¢
  • ask29.4k1¢
  • ask6,1781¢
  • ask29.8k1¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid12.7k0¢
  • bid7,9720¢
  • bid40.5k0¢
  • bid10.10M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Rand Paul wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 17 · 4:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-RPAU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9h ago1¢100bought yes
2d ago0¢100bought no
4d ago1¢1,868bought yes
4d ago1¢374bought yes
7d ago1¢20.8kbought yes
10d ago1¢389bought no
11d ago1¢425bought no
12d ago1¢0.39bought no
12d ago1¢211bought no
12d ago1¢10bought yes
12d ago1¢2bought yes
12d ago1¢4bought yes
12d ago1¢5bought yes
12d ago1¢1bought yes
12d ago1¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.