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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Steve Bannon be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Steve Bannon

24h volume
0
898.7k lifetime
Open interest
833.9k
Spread
0¢
402.4k × 18.1k at the touch
24h range
–
31 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask33.3k1¢
  • ask6.881¢
  • ask106.0k1¢
  • ask241¢
  • ask3,4111¢
  • ask137.0k1¢
  • ask111.3k1¢
  • ask18.1k0¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid402.4k0¢
  • bid2.03M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Steve Bannon wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 28, 2025 · 2:50 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-STE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 31 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago0¢18bought no
3d ago0¢1bought no
9d ago0¢1,000bought yes
9d ago0¢870bought yes
11d ago0¢3bought no
17d ago0¢43bought no
17d ago0¢10bought no
23d ago0¢20.0kbought no
28d ago0¢180bought no
29d ago0¢463bought no
29d ago0¢1bought no
29d ago0¢3.15bought no
29d ago1¢93bought yes
1mo ago1¢165bought yes
1mo ago1¢15bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.