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2028 Presidential election: exact outcome·closes in 28mo

Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

YES means Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio

24h volume
0
10.5k lifetime
Open interest
5,547
Spread
3¢
188 × 275 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 98¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10029¢
  • ask2524¢
  • ask1020¢
  • ask10019¢
  • ask1015¢
  • ask1010¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask2755¢
spread3¢mid 4¢
  • bid1882¢
  • bid2021¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWMRUBD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.