Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
YES means Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio
- 24h volume
- 0
- 10.5k lifetime
- Open interest
- 5,547
- +189 over 30d
- Spread
- 3¢
- 188 × 275 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 33 recent trades
A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 98¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask10029¢
- ask2524¢
- ask1020¢
- ask10019¢
- ask1015¢
- ask1010¢
- ask2007¢
- ask2755¢
- bid1882¢
- bid2021¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.
- opened
- Apr 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 20, 2029 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
- ticker
- KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWMRUBD
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).
- Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance12¢
- JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom10¢
- Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance10¢
- Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio8¢
- JD Vance defeats AOC7¢
- Marco Rubio defeats AOC6¢
- JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris6¢
- AOC defeats JD Vance4¢
- Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance4¢
- Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio4¢
- Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance3¢
- JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff3¢
- and 19 more
Recent trades
Over the last 33 trades, 61% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13d ago | 3¢ | 217 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 5¢ | 188 | bought yes |
| 21d ago | 3¢ | 205 | bought no |
| 24d ago | 7¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 47 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 250 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 219 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 300 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 75 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 25 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 50 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 83 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 2¢ | 195 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 25 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 250 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.