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SCOTUS members resigning·closes in 28mo

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

YES means Clarence Thomas

24h volume
0.93
36.0k lifetime
Open interest
14.0k
Spread
4¢
10 × 90 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
47%−2

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
53%

costs 52¢

YES bid / ask
48¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 52¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10064¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask50059¢
  • ask20057¢
  • ask50056¢
  • ask40054¢
  • ask20053¢
  • ask9052¢
spread4¢mid 50¢
  • bid1048¢
  • bid20047¢
  • bid0.8135¢
  • bid1826¢
  • bid2.2125¢
  • bid5321¢
  • bid26920¢
  • bid119¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Clarence Thomas resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-CT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.