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SCOTUS members resigning·closes in 28mo

Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

YES means Samuel Alito

24h volume
0
50.2k lifetime
Open interest
17.1k
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
10 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
56%

A YES contract costs 62¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
44%

costs 43¢

YES bid / ask
57¢ / 62¢
NO bid / ask
38¢ / 43¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢55¢60¢65¢volSep 20, 4:16 AMSep 21, 1:56 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3082¢
  • ask42281¢
  • ask8.2375¢
  • ask10073¢
  • ask10072¢
  • ask20065¢
  • ask1564¢
  • ask1562¢
spread5¢mid 60¢
  • bid1057¢
  • bid20055¢
  • bid2548¢
  • bid28447¢
  • bid13245¢
  • bid7334¢
  • bid50033¢
  • bid4226¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Samuel Alito resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-SA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago56¢11bought no
1d ago57¢5bought yes
1d ago65¢157bought yes
1d ago57¢5bought yes
1d ago57¢10bought yes
2d ago55¢22bought no
3d ago51¢5bought no
3d ago51¢3bought no
5d ago47¢16bought no
5d ago57¢3.91bought no
5d ago59¢5bought no
5d ago59¢5bought no
5d ago57¢10bought no
5d ago56¢500bought no
5d ago59¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.