galdor.xyz
Admin
KXTOKENLAUNCH·closes in 3mo

Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Arc

24h volume
64
15.3k lifetime
Open interest
5,836
−2.81 over 24h
Spread
4¢
206 × 19 at the touch
24h range
13¢ – 40¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
32%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
68%

costs 69¢

YES bid / ask
31¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 69¢
24h low 13¢24h high 40¢
Recent buying12% YES · 88% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 20, 4:51 AMSep 21, 4:15 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask560¢
  • ask98150¢
  • ask2249¢
  • ask6347¢
  • ask10046¢
  • ask20039¢
  • ask7538¢
  • ask1935¢
spread4¢mid 33¢
  • bid20631¢
  • bid4718¢
  • bid10016¢
  • bid7511¢
  • bid77610¢
  • bid2,7272¢
  • bid9.721¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Arc launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-ARC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 12% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago32¢6.3bought no
1h ago33¢6.83bought no
3h ago37¢6.83bought yes
3h ago36¢6.25bought yes
5h ago32¢19bought no
5h ago33¢5.89bought yes
5h ago39¢0.01bought yes
5h ago40¢6.23bought yes
5h ago33¢1bought yes
6h ago32¢0.27bought no
22h ago13¢0.74bought no
22h ago13¢2.07bought no
23h ago34¢2.81bought yes
1d ago32¢0.74bought yes
1d ago29¢3.28bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.