Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
YES means Arc
- 24h volume
- 51
- 15.3k lifetime
- Open interest
- 5,843
- Spread
- 4¢
- 6.83 × 20 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 37¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 67¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask2,05761¢
- ask560¢
- ask98150¢
- ask2249¢
- ask6448¢
- ask10047¢
- ask20040¢
- ask2037¢
- bid6.8333¢
- bid20032¢
- bid10017¢
- bid4616¢
- bid77610¢
- bid6457¢
- bid9.721¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Arc launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
- project
- CoinDesk
- CoinTelegraph
- The Block
- Decrypt
- DeFi Llama
- CoinMarketCap
- CoinGecko
- Etherscan
- Polygonscan
- Arbiscan
- Base Explorer
- Solscan
- Binance Chain Explorer
- official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks
- major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance
- Coinbase
- Kraken
- OKX
- The New York Times
- the Associated Press
- Bloomberg News
- Reuters
- Axios
- The Information
- The Wall Street Journal
- opened
- Jan 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Dec 31 · 6:59 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
- ticker
- KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-ARC
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 12% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 37¢ | 6.83 | bought yes |
| 1h ago | 36¢ | 6.25 | bought yes |
| 3h ago | 32¢ | 19 | bought no |
| 4h ago | 33¢ | 5.89 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 39¢ | 0.01 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 40¢ | 6.23 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 33¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 5h ago | 32¢ | 0.27 | bought no |
| 21h ago | 13¢ | 0.74 | bought no |
| 21h ago | 13¢ | 2.07 | bought no |
| 21h ago | 34¢ | 2.81 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 32¢ | 0.74 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 29¢ | 3.28 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 33¢ | 7.29 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 33¢ | 5 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.