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World Soccer Cup Host Country·closes in 89mo

Will Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?

YES means Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay

24h volume
0
1,685 lifetime
Open interest
498
−31 over 30d
Spread
3¢
1 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
44 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 84¢
Recent buying55% YES · 45% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volAug 22Sep 2

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask53067¢
  • ask4.7365¢
  • ask1,49262¢
  • ask1,33861¢
  • ask25050¢
  • ask9034¢
  • ask96120¢
  • ask25019¢
spread3¢mid 18¢
  • bid116¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay are announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.

Once an official host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup is announced by any of the Source Agencies, the markets for any host country/countries will resolve to Yes, and all other markets will resolve to No. If multiple host countries are announced to host the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup, all markets pertaining to any of the named host countries will resolve to Yes. Example: If Australia and Cambodia are announced as hosts, the market titled "Australia or New Zealand" and "Cambodia" will resolve to Yes, while other markets will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 17 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2034 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2034 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWCHOST-2038-AUCP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 44 trades, 55% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24d ago20¢1bought yes
30d ago17¢32bought no
1mo ago19¢1bought yes
2mo ago19¢66bought yes
2mo ago20¢38bought yes
2mo ago13¢2.35bought no
2mo ago18¢2.63bought no
2mo ago19¢4.98bought yes
2mo ago18¢12bought no
2mo ago18¢1bought yes
2mo ago18¢26bought yes
2mo ago17¢1bought no
2mo ago17¢5.25bought no
2mo ago18¢1bought yes
2mo ago18¢21bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.