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World Soccer Cup Host Country·closes in 89mo

Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?

YES means Australia or New Zealand

24h volume
0
1,221 lifetime
Open interest
316
+0 over 24h
Spread
6¢
339 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 87¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9.0257¢
  • ask12255¢
  • ask1,09554¢
  • ask74253¢
  • ask5252¢
  • ask9035¢
  • ask25020¢
  • ask519¢
spread6¢mid 16¢
  • bid33913¢
  • bid50011¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Australia or New Zealand are announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.

Once an official host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup is announced by any of the Source Agencies, the markets for any host country/countries will resolve to Yes, and all other markets will resolve to No. If multiple host countries are announced to host the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup, all markets pertaining to any of the named host countries will resolve to Yes. Example: If Australia and Cambodia are announced as hosts, the market titled "Australia or New Zealand" and "Cambodia" will resolve to Yes, while other markets will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 17 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2034 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2034 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWCHOST-2038-AUNE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago13¢45bought no
7d ago15¢9bought yes
7d ago13¢113bought no
1mo ago13¢2.91bought no
1mo ago13¢8.89bought no
1mo ago14¢3bought no
1mo ago20¢1bought yes
1mo ago20¢2bought yes
2mo ago14¢7bought no
2mo ago14¢13bought no
2mo ago20¢2bought yes
2mo ago19¢2bought yes
2mo ago19¢3bought yes
2mo ago19¢2bought yes
2mo ago15¢90bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.