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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 22mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2028

24h volume
0
4,719 lifetime
Open interest
4,135
Spread
7¢
150 × 3,588 at the touch
24h range
–
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%

A YES contract costs 82¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 82¢
NO bid / ask
18¢ / 25¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,47799¢
  • ask2,36298¢
  • ask5197¢
  • ask50095¢
  • ask394¢
  • ask193¢
  • ask188¢
  • ask3,58882¢
spread7¢mid 79¢
  • bid15075¢
  • bid20074¢
  • bid4538¢
  • bid54034¢
  • bid1032¢
  • bid3318¢
  • bid1416¢
  • bid1,39015¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q2
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago76¢9bought no
4d ago77¢2bought no
4d ago77¢5bought no
4d ago76¢0.27bought no
4d ago76¢2.92bought no
4d ago76¢1bought no
4d ago76¢9bought no
4d ago77¢5bought no
11d ago76¢2.08bought no
12d ago71¢200bought yes
12d ago71¢1bought yes
16d ago66¢1.73bought no
17d ago70¢1bought yes
17d ago70¢2bought yes
17d ago66¢15bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.