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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

YES means Aaron Taylor-Johnson

24h volume
0
281.8k lifetime
Open interest
137.0k
+12.1k over 30d
Spread
1¢
9.9 × 749 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 22¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 93¢
24h low 2¢24h high 22¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1224¢
  • ask623¢
  • ask1,20014¢
  • ask1,00013¢
  • ask15012¢
  • ask36510¢
  • ask129¢
  • ask7498¢
spread1¢mid 7¢
  • bid9.97¢
  • bid1086¢
  • bid1045¢
  • bid5,0014¢
  • bid263¢
  • bid1921¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Aaron Taylor-Johnson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-ATJ
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago8¢5.82bought yes
1d ago7¢13bought yes
1d ago7¢333bought yes
1d ago7¢14bought yes
1d ago7¢1,000bought yes
1d ago7¢0.14bought yes
1d ago7¢2bought yes
2d ago6¢1bought no
5d ago7¢1,906bought yes
5d ago6¢50bought yes
5d ago6¢11bought yes
5d ago7¢8.06bought yes
5d ago6¢55bought yes
5d ago7¢413bought yes
5d ago6¢1.31bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.