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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Jonathan Bailey be the next James Bond?

YES means Jonathan Bailey

24h volume
0
24.4k lifetime
Open interest
12.3k
+3,687 over 90d
Spread
5¢
308 × 48 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 9¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 98¢
24h low 1¢24h high 9¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask716¢
  • ask713¢
  • ask29712¢
  • ask6511¢
  • ask20010¢
  • ask1,0049¢
  • ask1008¢
  • ask487¢
spread5¢mid 4¢
  • bid3082¢
  • bid6641¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jonathan Bailey is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 26, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-JON
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago2¢29bought no
3d ago2¢166bought no
4d ago5¢250bought no
4d ago3¢29bought no
4d ago3¢38bought no
4d ago3¢3.8bought no
4d ago3¢7bought no
4d ago2¢372bought no
4d ago9¢8bought yes
4d ago7¢2bought yes
4d ago8¢100bought yes
4d ago9¢1bought yes
4d ago8¢9bought yes
4d ago7¢21bought yes
4d ago7¢15bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.