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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Tom Francis be the next James Bond?

YES means Tom Francis

24h volume
0
48.0k lifetime
Open interest
26.8k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
787 × 1,019 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 4:34 PMSep 20, 11:59 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask617¢
  • ask7,70015¢
  • ask1,00012¢
  • ask29010¢
  • ask1,0009¢
  • ask3108¢
  • ask9057¢
  • ask1,0196¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
  • bid7875¢
  • bid1014¢
  • bid2,0293¢
  • bid1732¢
  • bid971¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tom Francis is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
May 17 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-TOMF
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago3¢2.05bought no
2d ago6¢29bought yes
2d ago7¢109bought yes
5d ago5¢25bought yes
5d ago5¢50bought yes
5d ago6¢8.78bought yes
5d ago4¢1bought no
5d ago4¢33bought no
5d ago5¢2.94bought no
5d ago4¢39bought no
5d ago5¢19bought no
6d ago6¢0.8bought no
6d ago6¢18bought no
6d ago6¢136bought no
6d ago5¢21bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.