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Crypto being positive·closes in 3mo

Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?

YES means Polkadot (DOT)

24h volume
0
29.0k lifetime
Open interest
7,763
+59 over 7d
Spread
6¢
14 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 85¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,22284¢
  • ask2,00039¢
  • ask2635¢
  • ask13134¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask11529¢
  • ask14624¢
  • ask1521¢
spread6¢mid 18¢
  • bid1415¢
  • bid2614¢
  • bid389¢
  • bid918¢
  • bid105¢
  • bid1934¢
  • bid3103¢
  • bid1,0152¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Polkadot has a positive return in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Return will be calculated as: (last Price in <period>) minus (first Price in <period>), divided by (first Price in <period>). Price will be calculated by taking a simple average of the real-time CF Benchmarks index price in USD for <cryptocurrency> for the 60 seconds in a given minute, ignoring the top and bottom 20% of values.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 6 · 7:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-DOT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago23¢40bought yes
3d ago12¢2.34bought no
3d ago11¢8.77bought no
3d ago18¢8bought yes
3d ago19¢18bought yes
3d ago21¢1.76bought yes
3d ago12¢20bought no
3d ago11¢8bought no
4d ago18¢26bought yes
6d ago19¢4bought yes
7d ago12¢6.29bought no
8d ago18¢2bought yes
8d ago11¢7bought no
11d ago18¢0.7bought yes
11d ago18¢9.95bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.