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Crypto being positive·closes in 3mo

Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?

YES means Ethereum (ETH)

24h volume
17
79.9k lifetime
Open interest
19.7k
−164 over 7d
Spread
2¢
68 × 8.21 at the touch
24h range
28¢ – 32¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%+3

A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 32¢
NO bid / ask
68¢ / 70¢
24h low 28¢24h high 32¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3639¢
  • ask1238¢
  • ask3.0937¢
  • ask7.9136¢
  • ask7.9135¢
  • ask5.0434¢
  • ask6.6433¢
  • ask8.2132¢
spread2¢mid 31¢
  • bid6830¢
  • bid10026¢
  • bid1917¢
  • bid6516¢
  • bid4415¢
  • bid4114¢
  • bid2,00013¢
  • bid22912¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ethereum has a positive return in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Return will be calculated as: (last Price in <period>) minus (first Price in <period>), divided by (first Price in <period>). Price will be calculated by taking a simple average of the real-time CF Benchmarks index price in USD for <cryptocurrency> for the 60 seconds in a given minute, ignoring the top and bottom 20% of values.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 6 · 7:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-ETH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago29¢3.39bought yes
7h ago30¢6.48bought yes
17h ago32¢2bought yes
21h ago28¢5bought yes
1d ago27¢5bought no
2d ago18¢11bought no
3d ago23¢3.32bought no
3d ago24¢7.14bought no
3d ago29¢0.03bought yes
3d ago28¢2.99bought yes
3d ago29¢0.3bought yes
3d ago27¢3bought no
3d ago27¢3.05bought no
3d ago27¢4.08bought no
3d ago28¢4.09bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.