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Crypto being positive·closes in 3mo

Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?

YES means Bitcoin (BTC)

24h volume
87
153.0k lifetime
Open interest
32.5k
+527 over 7d
Spread
5¢
38 × 247 at the touch
24h range
32¢ – 36¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
32%+4

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
68%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 70¢
24h low 32¢24h high 36¢
Recent buying33% YES · 67% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,00052¢
  • ask15051¢
  • ask14450¢
  • ask20049¢
  • ask23948¢
  • ask16540¢
  • ask2739¢
  • ask24735¢
spread5¢mid 32¢
  • bid3830¢
  • bid2929¢
  • bid4328¢
  • bid15527¢
  • bid8825¢
  • bid10024¢
  • bid16122¢
  • bid5521¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bitcoin has a positive return in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Return will be calculated as: (last Price in <period>) minus (first Price in <period>), divided by (first Price in <period>). Price will be calculated by taking a simple average of the real-time CF Benchmarks index price in USD for <cryptocurrency> for the 60 seconds in a given minute, ignoring the top and bottom 20% of values.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 6 · 7:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-BTC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 33% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago32¢0.69bought no
4h ago35¢33bought no
5h ago35¢0.11bought no
7h ago36¢2.95bought yes
7h ago33¢0.5bought yes
7h ago34¢14bought yes
7h ago35¢18bought yes
7h ago34¢1bought yes
7h ago35¢13bought yes
17h ago33¢2bought yes
1d ago28¢2.38bought no
1d ago28¢14bought no
1d ago30¢137bought no
1d ago31¢15bought no
1d ago32¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.